Quiver Financial News

Recap from our Next investment wave.
 
Short Term vs. Long Term
Oil prices have plunged by approximately 40% from their 2022 highs, causing doubt among many investors in the oil market bull thesis.  
The recent crude price decline reflects a tug-of-war underway between bullish structural factors and bearish temporary factors, causing us to ask, is this a buying opportunity within a longer-term structural bull market or the beginning of significantly lower oil prices led by reduction of demand as a result of a looming recession?
In the short term (1 week to 2 months), the tea leaves that many oil traders watch, like oil inventories, refining margins, and whether oil prices are in contango or backwardation do appear to give the impression that oil prices in Q1 of 2023 will be flat or possibly down slightly.  
Strong sentiment, increasing demand, geopolitics, and most importantly, supply-side issues that will take many years to fix.
Sentiment – Wall Street is Bullish
Many Oil market analysts believe oil prices are going higher.  For example, Jeff Currie, the global head of commodities for Goldman Sachs, has a $110 forecast for Brent Crude in 2023, while rival investment bank Morgan Stanley agrees, expecting Brent to top the $110 level by the middle of 2023.  
These analysts note several catalysts as dynamics in demand, supply, and geopolitical circumstances arise.
Demand Dynamics
Morgan Stanley probably summed up the demand dynamics best by stating, “We remain constructive on Oil prices driven by recovering demand from China reopening and aviation recovering amidst constrained supply due to low levels of investment, a risk to Russian supply, the end of SPR releases and slow down of U.S. Shale.”  
Being one that has traveled quite a bit the past few months, I can personally attest to the recovery in aviation as each and every airport I have been through has been very busy.  
While the airports and roads seem just as busy as they were prior to the Pandemic, it also seems China could be the biggest catalyst in 2023, as highlighted by the Wall Street Journal “The pent-up demand from China is going to be enormous,” according to comments by Energy Aspects director of research Amrita Sen.  Continuing with “China could swing demand by at least a million barrels a day, and that could easily make the difference between an Oil forecast of $95 to $105 versus $120 to $130.”
“Prior to the pandemic, China was the world’s third-largest consumer of liquified natural gas, second-largest oil consumer, and largest electricity consumer. Resumed manufacturing activity and overall energy use in China could help offset fears of recession-driven demand destruction” 
While demand seems poised to increase through 2023 (assuming there are no or low recession effects), it is the supply dynamics that seem to be part of the thesis that may cause a longer secular bull market in fossil fuel prices.
Supply Dynamics 
Due to poor energy policies of the past, there have been supply-side issues building for many years, and those issues don’t look to be changing anytime soon.   We see a future in which oil supply is constrained for years, necessitating higher prices and lower demand than would be possible during the oil market of the past decade, when supply was abundant. The bull case for oil rests on the constrained supply outlook, which will be evident in a supply deficit that surfaces whenever prices are low and the quantity of oil demanded by consumers ticks above the level of available supply.
Most oil companies plan to keep a relatively firm lid on output and investment spending for new production.  For example, Chevron plans to boost its capital budget by 25% next year to $17 billion; most of that increase is due to inflation and a ramp in lower-carbon investment spending.  Likewise, ExxonMobil plans to boost capital spending to $23 billion from $22 billion. However, it expects its production will remain flat on a per-day basis.  
Without a major demand disruption due to a large recession, demand seems poised to rise amid continued tight supplies. 
Geopolitics
The geopolitics of Oil has always been a hotbed of debate and speculation, and now it seems that many past issues are approaching an inflection point over the next 5-7 years.  
In our opinion, one of the cornerstones of Oil influence is the Saudis, so let’s start the geopolitical discussion there.  For decades Saudi Kings maintained political balance by doling out vital power positions to separate, carefully chosen successors. Positions such as Defense Minister, the Interior Ministry, and the head of the National Guard. Today, Mohammed Bin Salman controls all three positions. Foreign policy, defense matters, oil and economic decisions, and social changes are now all in the hands of one man.   The 2017 coup and rise of prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) was significant in that MBS was backed by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), a fund comprised of trillions of dollars supplied by globalists Carlyle Group (Bush Family), Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, and Blackrock.  MBS gained the favor of the globalists for one big reason. He openly supported their “Vision for 2030”, a plan for the dismantling of “fossil fuel” based energy and the implementation of carbon controls.  In exchange for their cooperation, the Saudis are given access to ESG-like funding as well as access to AI advancements.
Also note, over the past few years, relationships between Saudi, Russia, and China have grown very close.  Arms deals and energy deals are becoming the mainstay of trade, and this has also led to a quiet distancing of the Saudis using U.S. dollars to trade oil.  Recently, the dominoes seemed to have been set with Saudi Arabia announcing at Davos that they are now willing to trade Oil in alternative currencies to the dollar. 
Not to mention from an age perspective, the current Saudi regime is at an age they could be viewing the next few years as their last hoorah to make as much money as they can from traditional energy sources before the world evolves and incorporates more and more energy alternatives.
Conclusions
The importance of the Saudi announcement and willingness to trade oil in alternative currencies to The Dollar, along with the continued strengthening alliance between East vs West, can not be overstated; this is the beginning of a global shift in reserve currencies similar to when The British Sterling imploded many decades ago which resulted in the rise of The Dollar to take its place as the “global petro currency.”
The consequences of this could be very devastating to the US economy. The ability to defer inflation by exporting it overseas is a superpower only the US enjoys. Currently, the Fed can print money perpetually if it wants to in order to fund the government or prop up US markets, as long as foreign central banks and corporate banks are willing to absorb dollars as a tool for global trade. If the dollar is no longer the primary international trade mechanism, the trillions upon trillions of dollars the Fed has created from thin air over the years will all come flooding back to the US through various avenues, and hyperinflation (or hyperstagflation) could be the result.
The effects of the dollar decline may not be immediately felt or become obvious for another year or two. What will happen is consistent inflation on top of the high prices we are already dealing with. Meaning the Federal Reserve will continue to hold interest rates higher, and prices will barely budge, or they may climb in spite of monetary tightening.
All the while, the mainstream media and government economists will say they have “no idea” why inflation is so persistent and that “nobody could have seen this coming.”
While this can sound dire and cause you to reach for a bottle of ludlum to numb the pain, there are and will be significant investment opportunities for those that are savvy enough to see the changes that are taking place in front of us.
If you are curious to know how your portfolio can Catch The Next Investment Wave in Energy and Currencies, click here to start a conversation.
Lastly, who knows what the introduction of #ChatGPT could have on the financial industry and its predictive capabilities for oil pricing.

Are you concerned about what to do with your money or investments with bank failures, fear of recession, and the anticipated dethroning of The U.S. Dollar appearing to be in our future? Get prepared and find potential investment opportunities by watching this short excerpt discussing the trends in Gold from Quiver Financials March 2023 Livestream, where we discuss: - If Gold will be an investor safe haven amid bank failures and corporate bankruptcies. - See how Gold has performed since 2016 to gain insight into where prices may be headed in 2023 - Hear how to manage the risk of investing in Gold and avoid buying too late Not intended to be investment advice.
Quiver Financial is an investment advisory registered with the State of CA and is CA Insurance Licensed. Advisory services offered through Quiver Financial Holdings, LLC. www.quiverfinancial.com 949-492-6900

Auto-enrollment offers a simple and streamlined method to start saving for retirement. It’s typically tied to an employer-sponsored retirement plan to increase the number of participants.
Those who offer auto-enrollment typically want to help ensure that as many people save for retirement as possible. Programs like this are primarily aimed at those who don’t normally think about saving for retirement: younger workers and those who believe they can’t afford to do so.
Recently, SECURE Act 2.0 has created legal provisions to help more Americans prepare for a secure retirement. For instance, it helps incentivize small businesses into offering a sponsored retirement plan by providing tax credits for adopting a 401(k) program. Why? Because 74% of small businesses still don’t offer their employees retirement plans!
But the law also includes an auto-enrollment mandate slated to take effect in the next few years.
So, what is auto-enrollment? And, more importantly, how does it impact your retirement?
What is auto-enrollment?
Auto-enrollment is a process where employees are automatically enrolled into a company’s benefit plan, like a 401k or other retirement plan. Typically, these plans are “opt-in,” meaning that new hires decide for themselves whether they’d like to enroll.
But with auto-enrollment, all new hires would instead have to “opt out” if they’d prefer not to participate in the benefit plan. Otherwise, they’re automatically enrolled in the program. This enrollment can happen immediately or after completing a probationary period, lasting anywhere from 30 to 90 days.
Who does auto-enrollment affect?
Currently, auto-enrollment only affects employees at companies that have an auto-enrollment program.
However, the SECURE Act 2.0 will increase the number of affected workers. The law is designed to help workers save for retirement and includes many helpful provisions. One of those provisions mandates auto-enrollment in retirement plans. Starting in 2025, companies starting a new 401(k) or 403(b) plan will be required to automatically enroll their employees into retirement plans with a minimum contribution rate of 3% to 10%.
This affects businesses that start new 401(k) and 403(b) plans after December 29, 2022.
What are the advantages of auto-enrollment?
401(k) accounts already have many benefits for employees. Initiating an auto-enrollment program can provide additional benefits by simplifying the process right from the start. Some of the most important benefits of auto-enrollment include the following:
The possibility of increased participation. Studies have shown that auto-enrollment has shown to increase participation in benefits programs.
Creating default savings for employees. By auto-enrolling employees into a retirement savings plan, employers help ensure that workers create a “rainy day” fund.
Creates simplicity. Auto-enrollment is a convenient way for employees to enroll in a benefits plan.
Are there any disadvantages to auto-enrollment?
Of course, automatically enrolling in a program can also have disadvantages. Although you can choose to opt out, you could feel that it removes a little bit of your autonomy. It’s a personal choice whether the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. Some common disadvantages to auto-enrollment include:
Reduced flexibility. Some employees may have changing needs, and auto-enrollment may not accommodate these changing needs within a workforce.
Limited employee knowledge. Some employees may not fully understand all their options or all the implications of enrolling in a benefits plan or know they have options.
Ineffective automatic contributions. The optimal contribution amount differs for each employee. For many, the default rate might be either too low or too high. With a streamlined process, they could end up with contributions that don’t suit their needs or lifestyle.
Why choose a 401(k)?
Understanding how a 401(k) can help you is an important first step for retirement saving. For one, it helps you understand what options are available and why you might want to look them over when encountering automatic enrollment.
It also helps you understand why SECURE Act 2.0 focuses so much on trying to help as many people enroll in such programs as possible.
Some of the common benefits of a 401(k) include the following:
Traditional 401(k)s are tax-deferred
Contributions to traditional 401(k) plans are made with pre-tax dollars. This means you don’t need to pay taxes on the money you contribute to your account. This is also true of traditional IRA accounts. However, once you withdraw money from your account, it becomes taxable income.
Please note that Roth IRAs and Roth 401(k)s are the opposite. Employee contributions are made with after-tax income. Whenever money is withdrawn, it will be tax-free. However, employees who make hardship withdrawals from either type of account before age 59 will be charged a 10% penalty fee.
Employer match programs
Employer matching programs are exactly how they sound—employers offer to match contributions made by their employees. It’s up to each business whether they offer this program and how much to contribute.
Most businesses only match up to a specific contribution amount. For instance, if you contribute 5% of your salary, your employer might offer to match the first 3%. They can also use a more staggered approach, offering to match 100% of the first 3%, then 50% of the following 2%.
Employer contributions come with their own annual limits. Because of this, they don’t count toward the employee’s annual contribution limit. These limits change every year. Your individual 401(k) contribution limit for 2023 is $22,500. However, employer contributions can add an additional $43,500 to the account. That makes the entire employer/employee combined contribution limit $66,000 for the year.
Diverse investments
A typical 401(k) portfolio usually consists of diverse investments. Often, these are a combination of stocks, bonds, and mutual funds. These investments are customizable to each plan owner’s needs and risk tolerance. A financial advisor can always help you determine what investments suit you best.
Don't be fooled by #AI and #ChatGPT.  These will not take the place of a financial advisor any time soon.  Please consult with a professional when it comes to investing.

With Inflation sticking around higher for longer and the recent news of bank failures, 2023 is starting off with a bang for investors. We discuss this and more in this edition of Quiver Financial's Market Minutes From The Boardroom where we cover some of the most popular questions we are hearing from our clients and family office investors like:
- How will the recent banking crisis impact me?
- How much higher can interest rates go, and what should I do with my bond investments?
- How are geopolitical conditions going to impact the markets in the near future?
- What is a bear market rally and what should I be doing NOW to protect my investments?
- Should I be concerned about the geopolitical environment and how may it effect Oil and Gold prices or The U.S. Dollar?
Like to save time? Chose the subject you want to hear about and scroll to the time stamp below.
00:00 Introduction
01:29 A Lot Has Happened Since December Why isn't The Stock Market Lower?
07:45 Markets Performance So Far This Year
11:08 There is a Good Lesson For Investors Here
13:03 Gold - The Charts and Fundamentals
17:10 Gold, Oil, Saudis and Digital Dollar
19:07 The U.S.Dollar - The Charts and Fundamentals
22:30 The Stock Market - Bear Market Rally or New Highs?
28:00 Oil and Energy - New Bull Market?
33:40 What Can Investors Possibly Do Now
37:36 What Are Toxic Treasuries
40:04 Bank Failures - What You Should Look For in Your Bank
42:27 Get A Free Portfolio Analysis
Securities and Advisory Services offered through Quiver Financial Holdings, LLC. www.quiverfinancial.com 949-492-6900

I’m sure it must seem odd that a wealth management company would be talking about the weather. Believe it or not, the weather can significantly impact the stock market and your investments. 
Weather affects many aspects of your life—from travel plans to whether you’ll run errands, the types of insurance you purchase for your home and vehicle, and where you move once you reach your retirement age. If you live in California, you might have heard of the IRS pushing the due date for tax returns a whole six months because of the weather!
In short, weather affects the way we invest our time and money. And investors are no different.
How weather affects investments
The impact of weather on investments will depend on various factors, including the type of investment, the severity and duration of the weather event, and the ability of companies to adapt to changing conditions. Investors should consider the risks and opportunities associated with weather-related events when making investment decisions.
Overall, the weather has two primary types of effects on investments: direct and indirect.
Direct effects of weather on investments
Direct effects of weather on investments can be seen in industries such as agriculture and energy, which are particularly sensitive to weather conditions. For example, a drought or a flood can affect crop yields, leading to lower revenues for agricultural companies and potentially causing commodity prices to rise. Similarly, extreme weather events like hurricanes or winter storms can disrupt energy production, transportation, and distribution, leading to higher prices for energy commodities. This could cause a drop in the stock prices of energy companies, and their investors could lose money.
Indirect effects of weather on investments
Indirect effects of weather on investments can also occur, as weather can influence consumer behavior and overall economic activity. For example, severe weather events can disrupt travel and tourism, leading to lower revenues for companies in the hospitality and entertainment sectors. Extreme heat or cold can also affect consumer spending patterns, as people may be less likely to go out and shop or dine in certain weather conditions.
In addition, weather-related news coverage can impact investor sentiment and market volatility. For example, suppose a severe weather event is expected to impact a major economic region. In that case, it can lead to increased uncertainty and volatility in the stock market, as investors may be unsure about the potential impact on earnings and overall economic growth. Some banks also increase their interest rate spread following disasters related to climate change.
How do I make investment choices based on the weather?
Investing based on weather requires careful analysis and research. Here are some strategies that investors may consider when looking to invest based on weather:
Invest in weather-sensitive industries
As mentioned earlier, agriculture, energy, and insurance industries are susceptible to weather conditions. Investing in companies that operate in these industries may provide exposure to the potential opportunities and risks associated with weather-related events.
Follow weather patterns
Tracking weather patterns can provide insight into related risks and opportunities. For example, if a drought is expected, investing in companies specializing in drought-resistant crops or irrigation systems may be a way to profit from the situation.
Analyze historical weather data
Examining historical weather data can also provide insights into related risks and opportunities for certain industries or companies. For example, if a company has experienced significant losses due to weather-related events in the past, it may be vulnerable to similar events in the future.
Consider climate change
Climate change is expected to impact weather patterns and potentially create new investment opportunities and risks. Investors may want to consider investing in companies working to address climate change or developing technologies to adapt to changing weather patterns.
Set time horizons
A “time horizon” is the period of time you expect to keep the investment. Generally, the longer the time horizon, the more risk you can undertake. Understanding time horizons can help you leverage time to your advantage.
As you research, you can move your investments around to various stocks, bonds, index funds, and mutual funds. Those interested in low-risk earnings on their cash might even open a high-yield savings account. Each of these investment options might be impacted differently by the weather. By diversifying in this way, you can use time horizons to help meet short-term and long-term goals.
For instance, you might move some short-term investments away from companies likely to see losses from the coming weather. You can then put that money into companies that might benefit greatly from the coming weather for potential short-term gains. But you might also choose to keep some long-term investments in those companies that expect losses and ride out the risk.
Invest in ESG funds
The S&P 500 index offers an ESG fund option. “ESG” stands for “Environment, Social, and Governance” and focuses on companies that meet certain sustainability criteria. It works much like the OG S&P 500, so investing in this fund can offer you the benefits of investing in sustainability-forward businesses with relatively low risk. Some companies are now offering ESG investment options for some of their retirement benefits. So, consider researching or asking about your options if this interests you.
Seek professional advice
Investing based on weather can be complex and requires specialized knowledge. Seeking advice from a professional financial advisor who specializes in weather-related investing can help investors make informed decisions. If you have a brokerage account, you can speak to your broker about your concerns for advice or ask them how the weather and climate change impacts the way they invest your money.
Take steps to mitigate risks
It’s important to remember that investing involves risks and that past performance does not indicate future results. Before making any financial decisions based on the weather, investors should:
Conduct thorough research
Consult with a financial professional
Create specific financial goals and investment objectives
Carefully consider their risk tolerance level
Also think about how #AI and #ChatCPT can have on your ability to research and invest with weather.  This is something we are keeping a close eye on as well.

Layoffs rocked workers across all sectors in 2022. The tech world was hit especially hit hard, with companies like Amazon, Twitter, Meta/Facebook, and DoorDash reporting mass layoffs. Business and professional jobs saw significant layoffs, as well—2.12 million throughout the year. Some companies, such as AMC Networks, have announced plans to lay off employees soon.
This follows 2021, which saw 17 million layoffs across all industries.
Many of those who experienced a layoff or separation from their job quickly scrambled to ensure they could afford food, bills, and other necessities. 46% of those polled reported feeling unprepared for layoffs or separations.
Today, we’re talking about the financial steps you should take when impacted by a layoff, and how to keep your retirement savings intact even during the worst circumstances.
Create a budget
When facing any financial hardship, it’s important to take a full inventory of your current monetary situation. Create a detailed budget that includes such items as:
How much accessible cash you have in your checking and savings accounts
Your total monthly expenses—bills, necessities (food, gas, etc.) subscriptions
Debt repayments—loans, credit cards, etc.
Any additional income you might receive
When creating a budget, try to gain an understanding of how far you can stretch the money you currently have. If you can, cut any unnecessary spending.
The problem with early retirement withdrawals
Part of the goal is of creating a budget is to avoid dipping into your retirement savings. While making withdrawals from your 401(k) or other retirement plans might eventually become necessary, it should be a last resort.
This is because making early withdrawals from your 401(k) can come with a few big disadvantages.
First, withdrawing money from your 401(k) before you turn age 59 1/2 can come with heavy penalties—up to 10% of your withdrawal!
Second, there’s opportunity cost. Because retirement plans are investment accounts, they’re designed to grow over time. Once you take money out, you lose the opportunity for that amount to grow and build more wealth. It’s difficult to recoup this kind of loss and it can greatly affect your retirement.
Avoid abandoning your 401(k)
Whenever you change employment—regardless of the reason—you risk abandoning your employer-sponsored 401(k). Abandoned 401(k) plans are a common problem that leads to a lot of lost money: according to Capitalize, there was over $1 Trillion lost to abandoned 401(k)s as of 2021 (one of many shocking 401(k) stats)!
The best way to avoid abandoning your retirement plan is taking control over it as soon as you can. Odds are, one of two things will happen to your retirement funds after your employment ends. Either:
Your account closes, and they send your money to you
Your account remains open and stays with your former employer
Under the best circumstances, your former employer’s retirement plan offers varied and unique investment options that grow in ways that suit your needs. If that’s true, you might choose to keep your 401(k) with them. However, you risk forgetting your plan exists or worse—your former employer going out of business. Additionally, the company could change the rules associated with your plan, making it more difficult to maximize your contributions or access your account.
Usually, you’ll want to take your retirement savings with you. Luckily, there’s a simple process to roll over your 401 k from your previous employer to a new plan.
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Performing a 401 k rollover
There are two methods for performing a 401k rollover: direct and indirect. The primary difference between the two is whether you take control of the money before rolling it over into your new account.
Whichever method you choose, you must perform the rollover within 60 days of closing your account. If you don’t rollover your funds before the grace period ends, it becomes income and you’ll be required to pay taxes on it at the end of the year.
Before performing a rollover, it’s important to make sure you have a new 401(k) account. If you’ve found new employment, you can likely enroll in a new plan when you begin work. Otherwise, you can search online for a new plan that fits your needs and retirement goals.
Method 1: Direct rollovers
Direct rollovers are ones where your money goes directly from your old plan to your new one. You can contact your previous plan administrator, provide them with information about your new plan, and have them transfer it directly.
Sometimes, your previous plan administrator won’t be able to send it directly to your new one. Instead, they’ll liquidate your account and mail you a check for the full amount. In that case, you’ll have to use the second rollover method.
Method 2: Indirect rollovers
In an indirect rollover, you become the middleman. Your account is closed and you receive a check for your full amount. It becomes your responsibility to send the funds to your new plan.
To do so, we recommend contacting your new plan administrator and following their instructions for depositing the money into your account.
Traditional vs. Roth 401(k)
Traditional 401(k)s are often the default option when you sign up. The contributions come directly out of your income before you pay tax on it. This technically lowers your year-end income, potentially lowering your annual tax. However, once you make any withdrawal (including distributions once you retire), it’s considered taxable income.
Roth 401(k)s are another popular option. They feature post-tax contributions. So, though you must pay tax on your income before you contribute, you can receive tax-free distributions once you retire.
When you perform a rollover, you can choose to roll your traditional 401(k) into another traditional 401(k), a Roth 401(k), a Traditional IRA, or a Roth IRA. If you have a Roth 401(k), you can only roll it into another Roth 401(k) or Roth IRA. Each comes with their own tax requirements and investment choices, so consider shopping around.
Rolling over a traditional account into a Roth account is called a Roth conversion and comes with rules and limitations. We recommend speaking with your financial advisor before changing account types so you can better understand any tax obligations or other penalties doing so might incur.
Apply for unemployment
Unemployment insurance can replace much of your lost income following a layoff. Each state has their own requirements for how to apply, so it’s best to search online for your local rules and regulations. Most states allow you to apply online.
There can sometimes be a wait for your application to be accepted or for checks to arrive, so it’s best to apply for unemployment benefits as soon as possible.
Find health insurance
If you’ve lost your health insurance because of a layoff, consider finding a replacement healthcare plan—even if you don’t currently have any medical expenses. Medical emergencies are often expensive. And, without insurance to protect you, an emergency could quickly deplete your savings.
Luckily, there’s a public marketplace for health insurance options. You can browse online to find a plan that fits your budget and comes closest to meeting your medical needs. Dental and vision plans are also available and can be found by performing a search online.
#Disney announced today they plan to layoff 7,000 workers.  Is #AI taking over jobs?  Students are using #ChatGPT in schools.  Will this impact future employment numbers?

To many investors, December 2007 felt like a nightmare scenario: the United States was officially in a recession. What would tomorrow bring? How much would we lose? As it continued, we worried: would we see another Great Depression before we ever saw more economic growth?
People panicked and made bad decisions that permanently affected their net worth.
Very few things drive emotions greater than love and money—especially if you’re approaching retirement when there is heightened fear of a recession, your 401(k) has a few bruises from a volatile market, and the interest rate continues to rise. If there is one thing the Great Recession exposed, it is how vulnerable our long-term plans for retirement or college savings become when markets and economies start to recede.
But how did our plans become so vulnerable in the first place?
2 common fatal mistakes to avoid
After managing money after the Dot-Com Bust and The Great Recession, I can tell you that recessions and bear markets can cause even the most sensible of individuals to fall victim to their emotions and make some fatal investing and savings mistakes. It’s understandable, considering a significant decline in economic activity can lead to a financial crisis. Unemployment rates can go way up. The news runs constant stories about housing markets and oil prices.
It’s only natural that people panic. But with that panic comes fatal investing mistakes.
Most fatal mistakes I’ve observed fall into two categories:
Risk management before the recession
Losing sight of time frame and goals for the funds you have invested during the recession.
These two habits usually intertwine, since one tends to lead to the other.
The simplified version of this process looks like this:
Step one: The stock markets perform well just before a recession, so investors buy at prices too high (taking on too much risk).
Step two: During the recession, the value of those investments drops further than expected, so investors sell at prices too low (losing sight of goals/panic selling)
When you do your homework, you will find that almost every recession has been preceded by a time of out-of-ordinary expansion, growth, and investor euphoria, just like we saw in 2021. During these times, many investors chase the dream and invest too aggressively.
Even worse, they can become complacent and stop monitoring their investments. It is usually these investors that then make the fatal mistake of selling those investments when the recession is near its end and the financial markets may be at their lowest prices and ready for recovery. Eventually, everyone has a point of capitulation when they see their money evaporating. Many times, this causes an investor to sell when they should be buying.
Time buckets: a recession investment strategy
What are the best ways to avoid this fatal error? In my experience, I’ve found that the best way to invest during economic downturns is to:
Diversify your investments between asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate, and alternatives)
Diversify your assets into a few different time buckets based on when you may need to use those funds.
When used correctly, I’ve seen this strategy turn the economic death knell of a recession into an investment opportunity.
Time buckets might differ depending on your individual goals, but I like to divide them into three time horizons:
Short-term buckets
I like to create a one-time bucket for short-term surprises or opportunities. These are funds that remain mostly liquid and accessible. This way, you have funds available to you should you find a quick or short-lived investment opportunity.
These opportunities aren’t usually for long-term investments. These are usually quick trades intended to pay off in a short amount of time. Having short-term pay buckets also helps you have accessible funds should you suddenly need to make a more personal purchase.
Intermediate buckets
It’s also a good idea to have an investment bucket that exists in a more intermediate time frame. These are investment funds you might not access for 2-5 years. This gives you a little extra luxury time for investments that might have more day-to-day volatility but could trend upward over time.
The recession might push down the price of some of these investments—but that could create more opportunities. Because you don’t need to access that money now, you can hold those investments until they begin to trend up. This also gives you the chance to invest more in good quality companies at lower prices that you can hold until prices rise.
Long-term buckets
And last, it’s helpful to have a long-term bucket that is focused on your long-term goals, like retirement or health care expenses. With this longer-term bucket, depending on your age, you can be strategic with your risk and cash management by building cash and reducing risk in times of market euphoria that precedes the recession. This can help you have “dry powder” to be able to turn a recession into an opportunity to buy more quality assets at lower prices.
The bottom line
Sometimes, losses are unavoidable. When those times happen, it is important to remain calm and place your focus on the quickest path to recovery instead of worrying about what you’ve lost.
If an investor wants to avoid the most popular and fatal recession investing mistakes, they should follow the famous line from Sir John Templeton: “When everyone else is greedy, you should be fearful. And, when everyone else is fearful, you should be greedy.”
What effect could #crypto and #blockchain have on this recession?  Dont forget about #AI and #Chatgpt give investors advice.

With the current downward economic trend, investors seek new ways to grow their money for minimal risk. We suspect salespeople might try to fill that void with annuities. Though they grow slowly, annuities offer steady earnings with low risk.
Fixed index (aka fixed indexed or equity indexed) annuities are a low-risk option that offer higher potential returns than other types of annuity products.
While fixed index annuities have many benefits, they come with some rules, restrictions, and add-ons that can affect the way they work and the potential returns they offer.
They’re also complex and nuanced with many options and strategies available. As always, we suggest consulting with a financial professional to help make a decision that suits your needs and goals.
However, we still want to provide a broad overview of what fixed index annuities are, how they work, and the benefits they offer so you know what to look out for and how they might fit into your portfolio.
What is a fixed index annuity?
A fixed index annuity is a long-term investment sold by life insurance companies. However, they’re not considered insurance products. The annuity works as a contract between you and the insurance company, with potential earnings tied to the performance of a market index, such as the S&P 500.
Unlike a variable annuity (which invests in mutual funds), a fixed index annuity allows you to earn money based on the stock market without exposing it to the volatility of any actual stocks.
How do fixed index annuities work?
A fixed index annuity works like a call option. You buy the annuity from an insurance company. The insurance company uses that money to buy an option against a chosen market index. That option tracks the way the index changes between two points (a “term period”) and determines interest based on those changes. If the index’s value is higher at the end of the term than it was at the beginning, you can earn interest.
Simply put: You buy the annuity in hopes the index makes money. If the chosen index performs well, you earn interest.
For example, if the index has increased in value by 8%, you can (potentially) earn an 8% return. Stress on “potentially.”
How long are term periods?
Generally, a point-to-point term period lasts a year. However, your contract can last between 1-10 years or more. At the contract anniversary date, earnings are calculated and any interest credits back to your account. If your contract continues beyond that date, your annuity rolls on and a new term period begins.
Are there limits to my earnings?
The simple answer is, “it’s a low-risk investment, of course it comes with limits.”
The more complicated answer: there are specific types of limits and levers that apply to fixed index annuities. They each work differently. Your annuity might come with one of these limits or (more likely) a combination of some or all of them.
Keep in mind, the rates of these limits aren’t locked in. The insurance company can change these rates when your annuity renews on the contract anniversary date. They can do this without telling you or your financial advisor.
Caps
Caps put a hard ceiling on your earnings. They are the upper limit of what you can earn with that annuity, no matter how well the index performs.
For instance, suppose your annuity has an 8% cap. Even if the index grows by 12%, your returns are limited to 8%.
However, caps shouldn’t be confused with a guaranteed return. If your cap is 8% and the index grows by 6%, your potential returns are still only 6%.
Participation rates
Your participation rate is the percentage of total returns that could become yours. For instance, if you have a 100% participation rate, and your annuity earns 5% interest, you can earn the full 5%. If you have an 80% participation rate and it earns 5%, you earn 4%.
Spreads
Spreads (or margins) are often referred to as fees. However, you don’t technically pay this fee. Instead, it comes out of your account automatically. Spreads are usually represented by a percentage that gets subtracted from the total returns. So, if your account earns 8% with a 2% spread, you could earn 6% (depending on the presence of other limits).
Hidden limit: dividends
When you look at the annual growth of an index, you might start seeing dollar signs. For instance, the S&P 500 averages about 10% growth per year. Even with your contract’s limits, that looks like guaranteed returns!
However, the index’s growth probably includes earned dividends. Fixed index annuities don’t count dividends when calculating growth. So, if dividends account for 50% of your index’s 10% growth, your potential returns are limited to 5%. And that’s BEFORE calculating caps, participation rates, and spreads.
When do these triggers apply?
Participation rates, caps, and spreads all come off of the total returns before they’re credited to your annuity.
For example, imagine your annuity has all three triggers. The index grows by 8%. You have a participation rate of 75%, a cap of 6%, and a spread of 2%. It might look like this:
With a 75% participation rate, your max interest 6%. This is great, because that matches your 6% cap!
Then, we subtract your 2% spread. The result: a 4% return is credited to your annuity.
Can I make withdrawals from my fixed index annuities?
Insurance companies rely on your money remaining in your account for the duration of your contract. To help ensure this, early withdrawals come with a penalty fee called a “surrender charge.” Surrenders are usually a percentage of your total annuity. Depending on your contract, the company might reduce the penalty the longer you go without making a withdrawal.
However, some annuities allow you to withdraw a certain percentage of your account before charging a surrender.
What are the benefits of fixed index annuities?
Despite their limits, fixed index annuities are good products that have many benefits. If these benefits are useful to you and your goals, these annuities might have a place in your portfolio. As always, a financial advisor can help determine which investments match your needs. Some of the most popular benefits of fixed index annuities include:
Tax-deferred growth
Fixed index annuity returns aren’t taxed until you withdraw them. Having tax-free interest build over the course of your contract can help your annuity grow bigger, faster.
Keep in mind that, when you eventually withdraw your earnings, you’ll need to pay taxes on them.
Premium protection
Fixed index annuities protect your initial investment (“premium”) against market losses. It does this by setting the bottom limit of point-to-point change at 0%. Even if the index shows overall losses during your term period, your annuity doesn’t lose money. While this can result in 0 earnings, it offers the potential for growth with very little risk.
Premium protection also prevents spreads from lowering your returns below 0%. So, if you have a spread of 2% and the index shows 0% growth, your earnings hold at 0%.
However, there’s one thing that can eat into your premium: fees. Though fixed income annuities rarely come with any fees themselves, the insurance company might offer add-ons (such as riders) that do.
It’s important to note that fixed index annuities are not insured by the FDIC. Therefore, the claims-paying ability of the issuing company can be impacted by unforeseen circumstances.
Guaranteed retirement income (with riders)
A lifetime income rider is something you attach to your fixed index annuity that can help supplement your retirement income to help ensure you have enough to retire. Once you “turn on” the rider, you can receive a certain percentage of your annuity in regular income payments every year. Several factors can affect how much income you can earn, such as the:
age at which you purchase the annuity
amount of your initial investment
age you wish to begin receiving payments
Because lifetime income riders must be attached to the annuity at the time of application, it’s typically a decision to make as you approach retirement. For instance, you might purchase the annuity with the rider at age 60 and turn on the rider at 65.
The specific percentage rate you receive depends on what the insurance company offers when you purchase the annuity. However, those rates are locked in for the life of the annuity. Any rate changes will only affect anyone purchasing a new annuity.
With the introduction of #AI and #chatGPT who knows what could come next with annuities.

If there’s one thing we’ve learned during the past few years, it’s that healthcare is more than just important. It’s a top priority.
The technology healthcare providers rely on is the most advanced it’s ever been. It’s hard to imagine how much more advanced it might become. And yet, healthcare improves almost daily.
For investors, that makes healthcare and healthcare technology a perfect opportunity.
The 4P model and shifting healthcare trends
There is a tectonic and timely shift happening in healthcare service.
A new need to cut costs and create efficiencies fuels this shift. The old paradigm of sick care is being replaced by a new focus on preventative care. To combat this, healthcare companies and providers are shifting to a 4P medicine model. The “4P” model is:
Predictive
Preventive
Personalized
Participatory
Increasing advances in technology make the 4P model possible. But how does that create opportunities for investors?
What creates healthcare investing opportunities?
The healthcare industry within the United States is massive.
In 2020, spending related to healthcare reached almost 20% of the U.S. GDP. For those of you keeping score, that means we spent over $4 trillion on the healthcare industry. With an aging population and rising inflation, studies expect that number to rise at the same rate as the GDP through the year 2030. That’s an increase of over $200 billion this year alone—and it will increase every year.
As the need for healthcare grows, the industry must work to become increasingly efficient. This requires continuous investment in new and improved health technology.
Over the past twenty years, certain segments of healthcare have struggled to keep pace with the rapid technological advances seen in other industries. Recently, the need for the global healthcare market to digitize and innovate has become increasingly clear.
Meanwhile, healthcare costs continue to rise at unsustainable levels. Some of the many reasons for this, including:
An aging population
An increase in chronic disease
A current mental health crisis
A continuing shortage of physicians, nurses, and other healthcare professionals
A lack of access to care
An increase in digital demand by hospitals and patients
We also can’t understate the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Practices previously viewed as typical shifted to create a new normal. Both health services themselves and the healthcare sector as a whole must change to meet the current state of the world.
Innovation in healthcare creates new avenues to improve patient care, treat patients remotely, improve patient flow through digital appointments, and reduce emergency care services. These improvements are possible through predictive modeling, artificial intelligence, and technology.
As these healthcare systems and technologies grow over the next decade, so do our investment opportunities.
Revolutionizing the world with healthcare tech
With new technology comes a new patient experience: virtual care. Artificial intelligence (AI), augmented reality (AR), and virtual reality (VR), along with Machine Learning, are transforming almost every aspect of medicine that you can imagine. You can now find these technologies in nearly every facet of healthcare, such as:
Robots assisting surgery
Virtual nursing assistants
Voice-to-text transcriptions
Electronic health record analysis
Preventative health tracking
For healthcare organizations and patients alike, the uses seem endless. AI can learn to detect diseases and analyze information from a patient’s health record in order to more accurately diagnose a health problem. Machine Learning can process large pieces of data from clinic trials and other sources. It can use this data to identify patterns and make medical decisions with minimal direction. This allows doctors to better assess risk and offer more effective treatments. AR, combined with AI, can help healthcare apps be extremely beneficial to both doctors and patients. VR can also help with training clinicians through simulation, educating patients, and aiding with treatment.
Where do we go from here?
As investors, it seems like a golden opportunity: we invest, health systems improve, and people get the care they need. While other parts of the system can benefit from similar tectonic shifts (health insurance, for example), the future is very bright for healthcare investors.
The medical technology industry creates opportunities for us all: for patients, care providers, healthcare companies, and their investors. Now that we know that, we can look for those opportunities when we make investment decisions.
The Medical Device industry led by companies like Medtronic, Edwards Lifesciences, Baxter, and Boston Scientific are interesting places to watch for developing trends. As always, research can help you find companies that match your money personality, risk tolerance, and personal preferences.
Lastly, who knows what the introduction of #ChatGPT could have on the healthcare industry.

We discuss 401(k) plans a lot.
That’s because retirement planning is important to us. Retirement can represent a quarter of a person’s life. Social security helps, but 401(k)s offer so much more for retirement savers. And 401(k) calculators can help make sure you get the retirement you deserve.
Using a 401(k) calculator forces you to think about your retirement in new ways. They offer great opportunities for making important decisions and maximizing your retirement contributions.
It’s a great tool for retirement planning. And we want to help you learn how to get the most out of using a 401k calculator.
Benefits of 401(k)
401(k) plans offer many benefits to those saving for retirement. Combined, these benefits help make 401(k)s some of the most reliable, trusted, and popular retirement savings plans available. Best of all, most workers qualify for a plan!
Some of the most popular benefits of a 401(k) include:
Consistent growth
One thing you can expect from your 401(k) account: it will grow. How much it grows depends on your contributions and understanding your risk tolerance level (one of our retirement mastery principles). But, even when choosing low-risk investments (such as mutual funds), it will grow. Growth is usually slow—but consistent.
And slow, consistent growth is important. 401(k)s are designed to grow over a long period. It might not seem like a large amount by the end of your first year of contributing. But, after several decades, this growth can build an account big enough to help provide for you in your retirement.
It’s like the tortoise and the hare: slow and steady wins the race.
Employer match programs
Employer match programs are nothing short of free money in your account. Through one of these programs, whenever you contribute to your 401 k, your employer would make their own matching contribution—up to a point, at least.
Usually, employers will only match a certain percentage of your contributions. For instance, suppose you contribute 7% of your income to your 401k. Your employer might match contributions up to the first 5%. Each employer is different, so consider asking what kind of contribution matching your company offers.
Pre-tax contributions
401(k) plans can actually lower your income taxes. That’s because 401(k) contributions are tax-deferred. This means each contribution you make is its own tax deduction, lowering your taxable income and your yearly tax bill. Even as your 401(k) grows each year, you won’t pay income or capital gains taxes on that growth.
Once you retire and start taking distributions, you’ll have to pay taxes on that income. However, most people have a lower income in retirement than they did while working. So, even in retirement, your 401(k) distributions offer a lower tax bill. This can provide you long-term tax advantages simply by having (and contributing to) your 401(k)!
Automatic contributions
Once you sign up for a 401(k), you don’t usually have to make active contributions to your account. Most employers automatically deduct contributions directly from your paycheck.
It’s simple. It’s easy. And, best of all, it helps make sure that you make 401(k) contributions regularly. Whenever you get paid, so does your account.
How a 401k calculator can be helpful
401(k) calculators (such as this one) are an important tool for retirement planning. All it needs is some basic information about you and your 401k, such as your:
Current age
Planned retirement age
Salary (and salary increase rate)
Current account total
Contribution amount (and employer match amount)
Some 401 k calculators may ask for additional information; others might ask for less. Once you’ve input your information, the calculator gets to work. 401k calculators can be extraordinarily helpful when planning for retirement because they:
Determine retirement income
Using your information, the calculator figures out how much money you might have in your account when you retire. Many calculators also estimate the average lifespan to help you determine what your yearly and monthly income might be. Though it’s only an estimate, this can give you a pretty good idea of the income you can expect during your retirement.
Estimate Inflation
When figuring out how much you’ll need to retire, it’s helpful to calculate inflation. Some 401k calculators do this automatically. This is important because it can add perspective to your retirement income. Though your estimated account total might look like a lot of money, inflation can lower its value.
Sometimes, the difference can be surprising.
Estimate early withdrawal costs
Something to keep in mind about your 401k plan is that it’s your money. If you wish to take an early withdrawal from your account to make a big purchase (such as a home or car), you can. But remember, because your contributions are tax-deferred, you must pay income tax on any withdrawal you make.
Unfortunately, that’s not all. 401(k) plans are intended for retirement. Withdrawing money before you reach 59.5 years of age can incur added penalty fees. The result: you receive much less money than you remove from your account.
401(k) calculators can help you determine how much money you’d actually receive should you take an early withdrawal. This way, you can make sure you take out the right amount to get the money you need. Then, it won’t be such a surprise that, if you withdraw $10,000, you only receive $6,000.
I should note that financial advisors don’t recommend early withdrawals. Once that money leaves your account, it can’t continue to grow. Replacing large amounts to your account can take years and cost you something you can never get back: time.
How to use the information
So, a 401k calculator provides a lot of information. But that’s only one piece of the puzzle. Just as important is learning what to do with that information. The good news is you can use the calculator’s output to help improve your retirement planning.
For instance, you can use 401(k) calculator results to:
Create and meet goals
The strongest retirement plans are goal oriented. It’s important to take the time to figure out how you’d like to spend your retirement and how much income you’ll need. A 401k calculator’s estimates can help you determine whether you’ll be able to afford the type of retirement you want.
You can create specific goals based on your estimated income. You can occasionally revisit the calculator to make sure you’re on track to meet your goals.
Or you can make adjustments to improve your retirement income. That brings us to our next point.
Optimize contributions
401k calculators give you the freedom to tweak the numbers you input to see how they change the results. I highly encourage you to do this because it can help you figure out what adjustments can help you build your dream retirement. And with decades until retirement, small changes can have a big impact.
As you experiment with the calculator, you can figure out exactly how much you need to contribute in order to afford the retirement you want. This can help you decide whether to increase your contributions, improve your 401k growth rate, or even find new employment as needed.
Maximize employer match
Most 401(k) calculators help you determine how much your employer contributes to your account. You can use this to your advantage to figure out how much more you can earn by increasing your contributions.
If you don’t already meet your employer’s contribution limit, try tweaking the information you put in as if you did. The results of maximizing your employer’s contribution match amount might surprise you! And the good news is that changing your 401(k) contributions to meet that limit is usually simple. Consider asking your employer how to do so.
Increase annual return
As we mentioned before, 401(k) plans grow slowly. But they’re completely adaptable to you and your goals. If the calculator shows that your annual return rate won’t help you meet your retirement goals, you can change that. A financial manager or advisor can help you find new investments for your 401(k) plan that match your desired return rate.
Keep in mind that increased returns mean increased risk. Your advisor can help you find a return rate that both gets you closer to your goals and matches your risk tolerance level.
Lastly, who knows what the introduction of #ChatGPT could have on the financial industry and predictive calculations.