Quiver Financial News

Good afternoon and welcome to Quiver Financial news and this week’s episode of our Market Recap.  Today is Friday Dec. 2nd and these are the top stories for the week of Nov. 28th.  Welcome back everyone.  We hope you all had a good Thanksgiving.  This week was a busy week for news that could affect the stock market.  However only one thing really had an impact.  That was Powell’s speech.
Markets rallied during his speech as stated that they will be slowing how fast they raise rates.  This was expected but markets seemed to have taken it as they were done raising rates.  He still announced that the next rate hike in December will be 50 basis points.  These types of rallies are very indicative of bear markets rally.  Never in history has the economy done well during a time period of Fed tightening so we continue to be cautious going into year end.  2023 is still looking to be ugly.
Other noteworthy data that came out this week that had no effect on markets was a weak pending home sales that fell by 4.6%.  Oil inventories fell by over 12 million barrels.  Private payroll lower than expected, PMI came in at 49% and GDP was 2.9% however, corporate profits fell by 1.1%.  None of these negative reports seemed to phase the markets.  The only other data that did have an effect on markets was the Jobs report released today.
Jobs came in stronger than expected and the markets reacted negatively.  Maybe because investor have started to realize these numbers are becoming more and more skewed when you look at the raw data.  Large number of these new jobs came from people taking on a second job.
Price action this week, means the year-end rally may have happened in one day and we could see a little more volatility going into year end.  Bears need to be cautious here as well and Bulls.
Something to watch for next week is the price cap on brent crude and if OPEC cuts production.
And those are the top stories from this week that investors should be paying attention to.  Thank you for listening and stay tuned for next week’s Market recap.

Good afternoon and welcome to Quiver Financial news and this weeks episode of our Market Recap.  Today is Friday Nov. 18st and these are the top stories for the week of Nov. 14th. 
It was a slow week for the stock market.  Stocks seem to be taking a breather as they decide if they will continue the climb or start a pull back. 
No a lot of headlines this week that would have an impact on what the markets do.  We did get a better than expected Whole sale price.  It rose by 2 basis points as compared to 3.  However, we still sit at 40 year highs.
We are also seeing mixed results in the earnings sector of the retail space.  Target had a huge hit to its bottom line while lowes and home depot out shine.  Layoffs also continue in the tech sector as amazon announced 10,000 employees being released from its headquarters.
And those are the top stories from this week that investors should be paying attention to.  Thank you for listening we are off next Friday for Thanksgiving but will be back the week after.  Enjoy your friends and family everyone.

Colby and Patrick sit down and talk the good and bad about annuities.  
Ultimately, the most important outcome is that you reach your retirement goals. On the surface, annuities may seem like a safe bet, especially during times of market volatility.  However, they often have significant drawbacks that aren’t readily apparent to the average investor.  Before committing yourself to an annuity, be sure you ask all the right questions and understand all the details.
Welcome to quiver financial news, today we want to cover annuities.  We will talk about the good the bad and what things you should watch out for.  We are focusing on annuities right now because if you haven’t already.  You will start to see a major push from individuals that only sell annuities because of the volatility in the markets and the rise in interest rates.  This instrument will start to look more attractive.  So, we wanted to draw your attention to this topic so that you can watch out for the tricks that are used to entice you.  I am joined today with Colby Mcfadden, CEO of quiver financial and a man that has sold a few annuities in his day.  Welcome Colby.
First lets quickly define an annuity.  An annuity is a contract between you and an insurance company in which you make a lump-sum payment or series of payments and, in return, receive regular disbursements, beginning either immediately or at some point in the future.
Colby what does this general definition mean for an investor.
            Types of annuities: Fixed, indexed, variable.
What is a premium bonus and how does it work or not work?
Why do annuities become more advantages in a rising interest rate environment?
What is a renewal rate? And why should investors pay close attention to this?
So Clients will also start to see a lot of MYGA in ads. Or Multi year guarantee annuities right?
What should people do that have an old annuity, say 7 or 10 years old?
Annuities have evolved considerably and they offer more and more flexibility but that flexibility comes at a cost in the form of a rider.
What are some ways I can take payments from my annuity?
What type of expenses do annuities have?
What is a surrender charge. Am I able to take any money out of my annuity early without hitting this fee?
Let's talk about performance. These are sold because investors are told you cant lose money but what are the pitfalls to this if any and what are they upside risks?
What impact can inflation have on an annuity?
Advisory services offered through Quiver Financial Holdings, LLC.
Registered with the state of CA | Insurance License # 0L92424
501 N El Camino Real Ste 200 San Clemente CA 92672
949-492-6900 | quiverfinancial.com

Recession vs. Depression: Definitions and Differences
 
October 24, 1929 was a Thursday.
The decade leading up to that day was one of carefree affluence. Thanks to a combination of more jobs, higher wages, and expanded access to credit, the middle class had more buying power than ever before.
As luck would have it, there was an abundance of things to buy. Henry Ford's assembly line meant companies could now mass produce goods quickly and cheaply. Consumerism took its spot at the forefront of the American economy. Between 1920 and 1929, the U.S. economy had more than doubled.
This was great news for the stock market. It trended upward for a decade. Buying stock on the speculation it would continue rising (seemingly forever) became a common occurrence.
In the mid-2000s, moneylenders found ways of helping unqualified borrowers get approved for mortgages. They then figured out how to sell that debt to other entities, who could repackage it into a new kind of investment: private-label mortgage-backed security. As housing prices continued to rise, everyone made money—a lot of money.
But, eventually, the housing market began to crash (something people worry might happen again in the near future).
When people could no longer afford their mortgages, the money began to disappear. Banks, other money lenders, and investors started losing money. And, because their success (or failure) influenced the economy, things turn a turn for the worse.
In December 2007, the United States' economic downturn officially became a recession. It would subsequently be dubbed "The Great Recession." It took years to recover.
On October 24, 1929, the stock market crashed. It initiated an economic downturn we now call "The Great Depression." It lasted a decade.
So, what's the difference between a recession and a depression? While it's unfortunate that these two events happened, they give us a reference point we can use to illustrate the differences between these two types of economic contractions.
But why is learning the difference important?
Why should I know the difference?
Believe it or not, recessions happen frequently. The exact number may vary depending on who you ask, but some estimate that America has faced around 34 major recessions since the founding of the country. Around a third of these happened after 1948.
While experts have a hard time creating a definition of a "depression" that everyone can agree on, most agree on one thing: America has really only faced one major depression.
So, why should you know the difference between recessions and depressions? Here are what I think are the two primary reasons:
To help you prepare for the more common recessions.
To help alleviate your worries about extraordinarily rare depressions.
Recessions are going to happen. We've averaged one every six years or so in the last 7 decades. In fact, many worry we might be experiencing a recession at this very moment. As investors, we can use that knowledge to recognize the signs of a looming recession, create a plan of action to sustain us throughout the downturn (like learning how to invest during a bear market), and give us the patience to wait it out—we know it won't last forever.
On the other hand, depressions almost never happen. Yes, a depression has the potential to spell disaster for many of us. If you're concerned about one, I say draft up your plan and put it in a drawer for safekeeping. The odds are you'll never need it. But on the off chance that you do, you'll have it. Either way, you don't have to worry.
Now, onto some basics.
Defining economic downturns
Before we discuss their differences, it might be helpful to put on paper exactly what these two terms mean. So, let's talk definitions.
What is a recession?
A recession is a significant decline in economic activity that lasts at least a few months. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as occurring when there have been two consecutive quarters of economic decline.
Several events and situations can trigger a recession. Whatever the trigger, the result is usually a widespread reduction in spending that affects businesses, the stock market, and other economic factors.
What is a depression?
Again, there's no definition of an economic depression that all economists agree upon. This is likely due to their rarity—with few things to compare it to, it's hard to determine the common characteristics.
What most can agree on is that a depression is a much, much bigger version of a recession. This is usually characterized by a sharp, extended economic downturn that lasts several years. Depressions feature severe declines with harsh effects spread across the economy.
What is the difference between a recession and a depression?
If a depression is just "a recession—but bigger!", does that mean the only differences are based on size?
The short answer: yes.
The more complicated answer: yes, but the differences are of such an enormous size that they're worth discussion.
That said, here are the key differences between a recession and a depression:
Duration
Though recessions can last up to a few years, they often peter out much more quickly. On average, they last about ten months before things even out and begin trending back up. Because of their frequency and compressed timeline, they're considered part of the business cycle—a cycle of alternating economic expansion and recession.
Business cycles can fluctuate in length, but they average about 4 years. Recessions are simply a natural part of the ebb and flow within that time.
Because they're more rare, depressions are harder to nail down. According to most economists, a depression lasts for at least three years—that is, longer than a recession, at minimum. Experts have a hard time deciding when the Great Depression ended, as well. Most consider the end to be 1939, though some think it didn't end until 1941 when WWII helped boost manufacturing in the U.S.
Let's look at the durations of our examples:
The Great Recession: December 2007 to June 2009 (19 months)
The Great Depression: October 1929 to ~1939 (~10 years)
Effects on Unemployment
Because a hallmark of a recession is a large decline in spending, businesses can have a hard time keeping their revenues up. This usually means cutting labor. As a result, unemployment rates go up. When the economy is doing well, unemployment in the US usually hovers at or below 5%. During a recession, unemployment can climb to 8% or higher.
It's no surprise that, during a depression, unemployment is much worse than during a recession. While this is a big problem today, it was even bigger during the Great Depression—federal social safety nets didn't exist until FDR introduced legislation for Social Security and Unemployment Insurance as part of his New Deal.
Great Recession unemployment: 10%
Great Depression unemployment: 25% (!)
Wage rates
When markets and businesses aren't doing well, they scramble to cover their losses. You might think this would affect wages during a recession—and, in a way, it can.
Wages don't typically go up or down during a recession. Instead, wages usually stagnate. This is because companies would prefer to let employees go rather than lower wages, hence the rising unemployment. Ironically, the Great Recession came at a time when citizens had been calling for wage increases—which actually occurred during the recession!
Because there was no minimum wage during the Great Depression, it's harder to determine how wages changed. But from what we can tell, wages went down during the Great Depression—for some, at least. This is likely because jobs were so hard to come by, and workers eventually decided lower pay was better than no pay at all. If you're interested in more specifics, I recommend this study by economist Curtis J. Simon.
Wage change during the Great Recession: $5.15—$7.25 (+$2.15)
Wage change during the Great Depression: ?
Effects on GDP and the stock market
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total market value of all final products (finished products ready for immediate use) produced and sold within a given time period. Because of their effects on business and production, economic downturns usually also have an effect on the GDP and the stock market.
During a recession, the GDP might fall around 2%. During a rather rough recession, it could fall as much as 5%. The stock markets also fall. As an example, we can look at the S&P 500. During most of the recessions we've experienced since the end of WWII, the S&P has fallen an average of 29%, with a median of about 24%.
For depressions, it gets much worse. Again, we look to the Great Depression. At its worst point in 1933, the GDP fell about 30%.
As for the stock market, 1932 saw the Dow Jones fall a whopping 89% below its highest point. Having lived through the Great Recession, it's hard to imagine how much worse it must have been during the Depression.
Let's compare.
The Great Recession:
GDP: - >1%
S&P 500: -55%
The Great Depression:
GDP: -30%
Dow Jones: -89%
Scope of legacy
I know I keep stating how much worse a depression is, but please understand that recessions are also quite bad. It's just that they don't affect as many people, have as severe consequences or have as many lasting effects. Things got hard during the recession. During the Depression, it's not hyperbole to say that most people barely had enough money to survive—and many didn't have that much.
And then, things changed.
By no means is everything perfect these days, but we do owe a debt to the policymakers who saw what happened leading up to and during the Great Depression and made moves to ensure that things wouldn't get that bad again.
I like to think of it this way: the legacy of a recession is that it changes people's minds. The legacy of the Depression is that it changes everybody's life. While recessions can often lead to some policy changes and a changing of personal plans, the Great Depression caused a complete paradigm shift.
With every paycheck, we still pay into Social Security. We still maintain a minimum wage which, though fallible, is still an effort to ensure people can afford to sustain themselves. The Securities Exchange Commission and the International Monetary Fund both exist as a result of the Great Depression.
The United States has experienced 34 recessions and 1 major depression. We talk about a small fraction of those recessions. But we still talk about 100% of the depressions.
Because we must.
#retirement #money #planning #education #free #news #realestate #finance #gold #dollar #inflation
Advisory services offered through Quiver Financial Holdings, LLC. Registered with the state of CA | Insurance License # 0L92424.  501 N El Camino Real Ste 200 San Clemente CA 92672.  949-492-6900 | quiverfinancial.com

Good afternoon and welcome to Quiver Financial news and this weeks episode of our Market Recap.  Today is Friday Nov. 11st and these are the top stories for the week of Nov. 7th. 
Well the massive short squeeze that we talked about last week did push the markets to a rally.  The Nasdaq has had its best week since 2020.  This means if the bulls can hold their ground we could see a rally into year end.  If this happens we could see a sentiment shift and the talking heads saying the recession is over and its all clear.  Causing a bull trap.  We have said from the beginning of the year.  Bear Markets tend to cause the most frustration to the most amount of investors.  Trade cautiously.
Bonds this week also had a lot of volatility.  Rates on the longer term Treasuries dropped over 30 basis points.  This are huge moves for the bond markets.  I imagine this is a reset type of action and we could see a lot more volatility in the weeks or months ahead.  Bond markets were closed today in observance of Veterans day.
Along with rates taking a breather the dollar too had a substantial pull back this week.  I am guessing this is a reset as well and we will see the dollar rally back as this recession deepens.  This is Not trading advice just something to watch out for.
Inflation for the Month of October came in at 7.7.  leading many to believe that inflation has peaked.  However, grocery prices jumped over 12%.  Only time will tell if inflation has truly peaked.  Either way, higher inflation is here for some time.
In other news and something that will have a small impact on equity markets.  The Crypto exchanged FTX filed for bankruptcy.  This has only caused skeptics to dig their heels in deeper to the thought the crypto is just a bubble.  No matter your view, if the carnage continues it will have some effects felt in the broader markets.
And those are the top stories from this week that investors should be paying attention to.  Thank you for listening and Stay tuned for next weeks Market recap.
#crypto #exchange #bitcoin #stocks #investing #dollar #money #bearmarket #retirement #news #investment #realestate #finance #veteransday #bonds #gold #inflation #bubble #

Good afternoon and welcome to Quiver Financial news and this weeks episode of our Market Recap.  Today is Friday Nov. 4st and these are the top stories for the week of Oct. 31st. 
There was so much data released this week we are going to even try and cover it all in this episode.  We posted the date and times of the release so if you feel adventurous check out the description box of this weeks episode.
Top items that investors should pay attentions to were lower Manufacturing ISM numbers.  We are now 90 basis points from the historical view of having a contracting manufacturing sector.  This could mean a potential increase in job losses if this continues.
The Federal reserve as expected hiked rate another 75 basis points and Powell himself said he has no plan of stopping.  They raised their target from around 4% to now 5%. 
Unemployment rate ticked up so modestly that its almost not worth mentioning.  What I will mention is that this key stat is what has so many investors and economist sitting back on their heels thinking this house of cards is stable.
To the stock market, the rally that we called two weeks ago has continued and pushed us to another inflection point.  The put to call ratio is at its highest point since the bottom of the markets in March of 2020.  Because of this I would say trade safe for the coming week.  Normally we would agree that a pull back here would be expected.  However a rally into a close on a Friday and the over bearish sentiment since powells speech has us sitting back and watching as well.
And those are the top stories from this week that we feel you should know about.  Thank you for listening and Stay tuned for next weeks Market recap.
 
Monday, October 31
09:45 AM Chicago PMI, October (GS 48.0, consensus 47.0, last 45.7): We estimate that the Chicago PMI rebounded 2.3pt to 48.0 in October, as the Chicago PMI has overshot to the downside relative to other business surveys (GS manufacturing survey tracker -1.5pt to 48.8 in October).
10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, October (consensus -18.5, last -17.2)
Tuesday, November 1
09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, October final (consensus 49.9, last 49.9)
10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, September (GS 10,000k, consensus 9,625k, last 10,053k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings declined to 10,000k in September.
10:00 AM Construction spending, September (GS -0.3%, consensus -0.5%, last -0.7%): We estimate construction spending decreased 0.3% in September.
10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, October (GS 49.9, consensus 50.0, last 50.9): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index declined by 1pt to 49.9 in October, reflecting weak industrial trends abroad and convergence towards other manufacturing surveys (GS manufacturing survey tracker -1.5pt to 48.8 in October).
05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, October (GS 14.6mn, consensus 14.3mn, last 13.49mn)
Wednesday, November 2
08:15 AM ADP employment report, October (GS +200k, consensus +180k, last +208k): We estimate a 200k rise in ADP payroll employment in October.
02:00 PM FOMC statement, November 1-2 meeting: We expect the FOMC to deliver a fourth 75bp hike at its November meeting this week, raising the target range for the fed funds rate to 3.75-4%. The focus will be on what comes next, and we expect Chair Powell to hint that the FOMC will likely slow the pace to 50bp in December. We expect the FOMC to eventually pair that slowdown with a somewhat higher projected peak funds rate in the December dot plot. Our forecast calls for hikes of 75bp in November, 50bp in December, 25bp in February, and 25bp in March with the funds rate range peaking at 4.75-5%.
Thursday, November 3
08:30 AM Trade balance, September (GS -$72.4bn, consensus -$72.0bn, last -$67.4bn): We estimate the trade deficit widened by $5bn to $72.4bn in September, reflecting declining goods exports and rising goods imports in the advanced goods report.
08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q3 preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last -4.1%): Unit labor costs, Q3 preliminary (GS +4.7%, consensus +4.0%, last +10.2%): We estimate nonfarm productivity growth of +0.5% in Q3 (qoq saar) and unit labor cost—compensation per hour divided by output per hour—growth of +4.7%.
08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended October 29 (GS 215k, consensus 220k, last 217k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended October 22 (consensus 1,450k, last 1,438k): We estimate initial jobless claims edged down to 215k in the week ended October 29.
09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, October final (consensus 46.6, last 46.6)
10:00 AM Factory orders, September (GS flat, consensus +0.3%, last flat); Durable goods orders, September final (consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, September final (last -0.5%); Core capital goods orders, September final (last -0.7%); Core capital goods shipments, September final (last -0.5%): We estimate that factory orders were unchanged in September. Durable goods orders rose 0.4% in the September advance report but core capital goods orders declined 0.7%.
10:00 AM ISM services index, October (GS 55.7, consensus 55.1, last 56.7): We estimate that the ISM services index declined by 1pt to 55.7 in October, reflecting convergence towards other business surveys but a sentiment boost from rebounding stock markets. Our non-manufacturing survey tracker fell by 2.0pt to 51.2 in October.
Friday, November 4
08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, October (GS +225k, consensus +190k, last +263k); Private payroll employment, October (GS +225k, consensus +195k, last +288k); Average hourly earnings (mom), October (GS +0.35%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), October (GS +4.7%, consensus +4.7%, last +5.0%); Unemployment rate, October (GS 3.5%, consensus 3.6%, last 3.5%); Labor force participation rate, October (GS 62.3%, consensus 62.4%, last 62.3%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 225k in October (mom sa), a slowdown from the +263k pace in September reflecting sequentially lower—but still very elevated—labor demand. Big Data indicators were mixed in the month, but jobless claims remained very low. We also note that job growth tends to pick up in October when the labor market is tight, as firms frontload fall and pre-holiday hiring. We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5%, reflecting a rise in household employment and flat-to-up labor force participation. We estimate a 0.35% increase in average hourly earnings (mom sa), reflecting positive calendar effects and a possible boost from autumn recruitment efforts.
10:00 AM Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Susan Collins will discuss the economic and monetary policy outlook at an event hosted by the Brookings Institution. On October 12, Collins said, “We are focused and resolute and have the tools to bring inflation back down to the two-percent target…I am anticipating or expecting additional interest rate changes.”

Good afternoon and welcome to Quiver Financial news and this weeks episode of our Market Recap.  Today is Friday Oct. 28st and these are the top stories for the week of Oct. 24th. 
Interest rates have taken a breather.  Even with the ECB hiking another 75 basis points and the fed expected to hike 75 basis points next week.  Time will tell if rates continue the trend higher.
Gas per barrel is at the same price point as a year ago and yet we haven’t seen a change in inflation data.
Today was another big rally day for the markets.  S&P500 closed out above 3900.  Bears need to be cautious and Bulls still have their work cut out for them to hold this rally into the end of the year.
Tech Stock tumbled this week on poor earnings form the big companies.  Facebook dressed up as a dead stock for Halloween this week.
3rd quarter GDP ticked up to a whopping 2.6 on wed.  Causing some to think the recession is going to have a soft landing.  These experts are not as pessimistic as a majority of that GDP number was driven by exports to Europe to aid their failing economy as well as oil and gas.  We still saw a huge slow down in consumer consumption.
And those are the top stories from this week that we feel you should know about.  Thank you for listening and Stay tuned for next weeks Market recap.
 
#inflation #oil #gas #interest #retirement #stocks #investing #money #gold #crypto #advice #education #free #bonds #savings #earnings #facebook #microsoft #amazon #boeing

Good afternoon and welcome to Quiver Financial news and this weeks episode of our Market Recap.  Today is Friday Oct. 21st and these are the top stories for the week of Oct. 17th.  This episode is titled CASH is King but takes on an entirely new meaning.
Last week we discussed that we might see a rally in the weeks to come.  Well we saw it, lost it and got it back today.  This is typical activity for a bear market.  We are still in an inflection zone so no clear indication whether we continue this rally or see new lows near term.  It is still our long term opinion that we are in a bear market.
Earnings have been relatively positive this week however most companies still painting a not so rosie picture of months to come.  Something to keep an eye on for future companies to talk about next week.
US existing home sales crash to a 10 year low.  We talked about the potential of a real estate crash and what you need to know.  Visit our youtube page to get the full story.
Now to the stories to way we say cash is king taking on an entirely new meaning.
Dollar is still strong and shows no sign of stopping.
IRS sets new 401k savings limits for 2023 and expands income amounts for the tax brackets.
Safe banking rules for cannabis companies are yet one more step closer after Biden’s endorsement.
Interest rates strike another high this week.  Fed expected to make another 75 basis point increase early next month.  What does this mean to you, well many things but one that we haven’t talked about in a while is that you can finally earn a decent rate of return on your cash. Some places as high at 4%.
And those are our top stories of the week that we feel investors should be paying attention to.  Stay tuned for next weeks market recap.
 
#stockmarket #recession #bearmarket #cash #dollar #interestrates #investing #retirement #money #free #banks #earnings #realestate #gold #silver 

Every week we will try and recap all the major events and topics of the week that we feel investors should be aware of as well as future topics that could come to head in the coming weeks.
1. Core Inflation stays high.
2. Charts are calling for a potential rally in the weeks to come.
3. Bear Market is not over yet.
4. Interest rates and dollar continue their climb.  Janet Yellen says she likes a strong dollar.
5. Bank of England tells pension funds to rebalance in 3 days.
6. Things to watch in coming weeks: Retail sales numbers and Earnings.
7. Krogers purchase of Albertsons could have an impact on prices at the grocery store.
Be sure to subscribe to our channel to get the latest on news and information about this Bear Market.
Thank you from all of us at Quiver Financial News.

Looking for answers on how to invest in a bear market? Is the stock market volatility causing you concern?
Are you an investor in stocks, bonds or real estate pondering questions like: How much further can the stock market fall and what should I do with my retirement investments? How much higher can interest rates go and what should I do with my bond investments? How can I make money from the rising dollar? Should I be buying real estate or waiting for a crash?
All these questions that investors have and more are discussed in this third and most recent episode of Quiver Financial's - Taming The 2022 Bear Market.
Gain actionable steps from our outlooks on the stock market, interest rates, real estate, commodities and The U.S. Dollar. Not intended to be investment advice.
Securities and Advisory Services offered through Quiver Financial Holdings, LLC. www.quiverfinancial.com 949-492-6900
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